A Decade of Change: How Rooftop Solar and Renewables Transformed Australia’s Grid 🌞⚡

Aug 25

2 min read

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Australia’s grid in 2024 looks nothing like it did in 2014. In just 10 years, renewables have surged, coal has declined, and rooftop solar has rewritten the rules of electricity demand. The new State of the Energy Market report from the Australian Energy Regulator (AER) captures just how dramatic the shift has been.

A Decade of Change: How Rooftop Solar and Renewables Transformed Australia’s Grid

The Big Shifts in 10 Years

Renewables up → From 14% of generation capacity in 2014 to 60% by 2024.
Coal & gas down → More than 6.6 GW retired over the decade.
Emissions cut → Grid emissions slashed 28% since 2005.
Rooftop solar boom → Capacity is now 7x higher than in 2014.

Rooftop Solar: The Game Changer

Now provides 25% of total generation capacity in the NEM.
Supplied 14.7% of total generation in early 2025, ahead of utility-scale solar.
Capable of meeting over half of midday demand on sunny days.
For coal, it’s a headache → midday demand collapses, forcing plants to bid at negative prices.

Market Impacts: The “Duck Curve” Bites

Negative prices rose to 15% of all trading intervals in 2024, up from 3.5% in 2020.
High prices above $300/MWh also increased, making the market more volatile.
Despite swings, average wholesale prices remain below the record highs of 2022.

What It Means for Consumers

Retail prices stable → Small decreases in SA, slight rises in QLD.
Network costs down → Average household saved $36 in 2024 from lower poles & wires charges.
Future outlook → By 2050, homes may use more energy but draw little extra from the grid, thanks to rooftop solar, batteries, and efficiency.