⚡ AEMO: Renewables Keep Australia’s Energy Reliability “Healthy”
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This week, while some politicians were still waving the “coal forever” flag, Australia’s official energy market operator (AEMO) delivered a very different message: our energy system is becoming more reliable, not less, thanks to wind, solar and battery storage.
The 2025 Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) shows that a record year of clean energy investment is making the grid stronger – even as electricity demand surges from data centres, electrification, and new industries.
🌱 What AEMO Found
📈 Demand is rising – electricity use is expected to jump 21% by 2035, mostly due to new technologies and industry growth.
🏭 Coal is retiring – 11 GW of fossil fuel capacity will close, including Eraring, Bayswater, and Yallourn.
🌞 Renewables filling the gap – Australia is adding 5–10 GW of new solar, wind and storage every year.
🔋 Reliability looks good – As long as projects keep moving, AEMO says supply will stay “healthy” across most states.
🚨 The Challenges Ahead
While the overall outlook is positive, AEMO warns of a few short-term gaps:
Queensland – could face an 80 MW shortfall this summer, with unreliable coal plants and slower renewable rollout under the new state government.
South Australia – may see a 390 MW gap in 2026-27 if a gas plant retires early and transmission upgrades run late.
But these risks are expected to be managed with project extensions and fast-tracked renewable projects.
🏭 Why Coal is the Real Risk
Despite calls to “bring back coal,” AEMO says coal plants are actually the least reliable part of the grid.
They have the highest unplanned outage rates of any generation type.
Many units are old and failing, leading to costly breakdowns.
Renewables + storage are proving far more reliable as investment grows.
As AEMO’s CEO Daniel Westerman explains:
“The 10-year investment pipeline to manage energy reliability is healthy – as long as we keep building renewable generation, storage and transmission.”
🏡 What It Means for Australians
The message is clear: Australia’s energy future is renewable.
More solar, wind and storage → cheaper, cleaner power.
Less reliance on ageing coal → fewer outages.
Policy certainty → confidence for investors and communities.
Federal Energy Minister Chris Bowen summed it up:
“Australians can have confidence that our plan is working – we’re making the system cleaner, fairer and more reliable.”
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