🌏 Albanese’s Green Steel Vision Leaves Queensland’s Coal Dreams in the Dust

Jul 17, 2025

2 min read

Australia's coal-reliant state of Queensland may be banking on outdated projections, as Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s green steel pivot gains momentum—partnering with China to shape a future beyond fossil fuels.

Albanese’s Green Steel Vision Leaves Queensland’s Coal Dreams in the Dust

🤝 Beijing: The Strategic Power Play

Albanese’s visit to China wasn’t just diplomatic—it was deliberate, strategic, and economic. With China being the largest steel producer globally, and the biggest buyer of Australia’s exports, the green steel pitch hit the right audience at the right time.

📉 Steel Slowdown Spells Trouble for Coal

But there's a problem back home. China’s steel production is cooling off, with crude steel output down 9.2% and pig iron production down 4.2% in H1 2025. As a result:

Iron ore imports to China dropped 3%
Global metallurgical coal trade fell around 14%

This drop is causing ripples, especially in Queensland’s coal industry, where financial pressures are stacking up.

🛑 Coal Miners Under Pressure

Two major Queensland coal companies are already in the firing line:

Coronado Global suffered a credit downgrade, threatening a $1 billion capital raise
Bowen Coking Coal faces a $15 million legal hit

All this while coal prices fall and margins shrink.

💰 Queensland’s Budget Bets on Coal—Again

Despite all signals, Queensland’s 2025–26 Budget predicts a 10.5% rise in metallurgical coal exports this year. It also expects continued growth into 2026–27 and wants to review its royalty system, which recently kept state finances afloat.

But the hope that India and Vietnam will save the day seems far-fetched.

🇮🇳 India & 🇻🇳 Vietnam: Overhyped Coal Markets?

India’s coking coal imports fell last year, even as its steel output rose.
Vietnam, touted as a rising star, still produces 5x less steel than China’s city of Tangshan alone.

Plus, with the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and rising global trade barriers, Vietnam’s future as a major coal importer looks shaky.

🏗️ Green Steel: A Real Alternative

Here’s where green steel enters as both a climate solution and a market opportunity.

Green steel tech still uses iron ore—Australia’s strong suit—and could replace declining blast furnace demand while opening doors to long-term partnerships, particularly with China.

🚂 Time for Queensland to Jump Onboard

While the federal government leans into green innovation, Queensland risks missing the shift, staying tied to a shrinking market. With the Brisbane Olympics coming and infrastructure costs soaring, now’s the time to pivot, not cling.

Australia’s green steel revolution is beginning now, and Queensland could play a starring role—if it chooses to.