Australia's Biggest Rooftop Solar Year Ever: What SunWiz's October Numbers Mean for Queensland

Australia is headed for its biggest year of rooftop solar growth ever. That is the finding in the latest data from industry analysts SunWiz, reported by Renew Economy on 6 November 2026 — and it arrives in a year that has been dominated, until now, by batteries. The numbers matter for anyone in Queensland deciding whether to install solar or a battery now, wait for a better discount, or size a system for a home or a business. They also contain a warning: one of the reasons the year is a record is a set of discounts and deadlines that are about to change.

This blog covers one story only: the SunWiz October 2026 figures and what they mean. Every number below comes from the Renew Economy report of 6 November 2026, which quotes SunWiz managing director Warwick Johnston and the SunWiz report directly. Where a figure comes from a different published guide, that is stated. Nothing here is a forecast, a savings promise, or a recommendation for a particular household.

1. What happened: the October numbers

Rooftop solar had its strongest October in four years. SunWiz reports that rooftop solar installs in the 0–100 kW range reached 305 MW in October 2026 — about 16% more than October 2025 (262 MW) and 11% more than October 2024 (274 MW). Month-on-month growth from September was only about 1%, but the running tally for January to October is the highest it has ever been, and by some distance. Warwick Johnston's words, as reported: "It's the strongest October of the last four years, and volumes have been above every prior year since June. The January–October tally is the highest on record and is running 41% ahead of the same point in 2025."

Home batteries passed 1 GWh in a month for the first time since April. National home battery installations reached an estimated 1,043 MWh — just over 1 gigawatt-hour — in October 2026, up 9.7% from September. That makes it the first month above 1 GWh since April, when a record 3,262 MWh was installed ahead of the rebate changes that took effect in May 2026. Johnston again: "This is the second straight rise after August's small dip, and volumes are now nearly double the May low, though still about 68 per cent below April." He describes it as a continuation of recovery after the post-April slump, "as customers come to the market in their own time, and in preparation for summer."

Bigger batteries are now the norm, not the exception. Growth came mostly from systems sized at 20 kWh and above. The 20–30 kWh segment accounted for 399 MWh of October's total, ahead of 40–50 kWh at 273 MWh and 30–40 kWh at 210 MWh. Together, the bands from 20 kWh upward made up 85% of the month's capacity. At the smaller end, 10–20 kWh rose 3% to 150 MWh, and 0–10 kWh was flat at 11 MWh. The national average home battery system size rose for a fifth consecutive month, to 26.74 kWh in October. The average rooftop system size stayed much the same, rising to just about 10 kW for the month after four months sitting just under 10 kW at 9.9 kW.

Figure	October 2026	Comparison
Rooftop solar registered (0–100 kW)	305 MW	+16% vs Oct 2025 (262 MW); +11% vs Oct 2024 (274 MW)
January–October rooftop tally	Highest on record	41% ahead of the same point in 2025
Home batteries installed	1,043 MWh	+9.7% vs September; first month above 1 GWh since April (3,262 MWh record)
Average home battery size	26.74 kWh	Fifth consecutive monthly rise
Systems 20 kWh and above	85% of October battery capacity	20–30 kWh segment largest at 399 MWh
Queensland rooftop solar	75.8 MW	−8% on the month; NSW 89.9 MW (+5%), Victoria 60.2 MW (+11%)
Average rooftop system size	~10 kW	Up from 9.9 kW over the previous four months

2. Why it happened — and the mid-scale twist

The battery rebate is pulling solar with it. The federal Cheaper Home Batteries Program, in place since 1 July 2025, requires discounted storage systems to be paired with solar. Renew Economy notes that this is a large part of the revival: households that had not yet installed solar have taken the plunge with a battery included, while many households that already had rooftop solar are choosing to upgrade or replace their systems to better match their added storage. That explains both the record solar year and the shift toward larger batteries — a 20–30 kWh battery needs a larger array to charge it than the 6.6 kW standard of a few years ago.

The mid-scale expansion is real, but the paperwork is not open yet — and the market is waiting. The federal government's expansion of the Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme to cover commercial and industrial installations from the former 100 kW ceiling up to 1 MW came into effect for eligible mid-scale solar systems installed from 1 October 2026. But applications for small-scale technology certificates (STCs) for mid-scale systems do not open until mid to late November 2026, according to the Clean Energy Regulator. SunWiz notes that some segments of the rooftop market have gone into decline while they wait to register certificates for systems between 100 kW and 1 MW. "Most notable was the decline (high percentage but low volume) in commercial volumes above 50 kW, whereas other segments were steady," the report says. For a Queensland business with a 100 kW to 1 MW project, that is the most important line in the whole report: the scheme covers your system, but the certificate process is not open yet, and no quote should promise a certificate value until the Clean Energy Regulator's process is confirmed for your system size and installation date.

The state picture is uneven. Victoria posted the strongest growth for the month, with 60.2 MW of new rooftop capacity, an 11% jump on September. New South Wales installed the largest total capacity, 89.9 MW, 5% more than September. Queensland added 75.8 MW, down 8% on the month, while Western Australia charted 5% growth. Queensland's monthly dip does not change the national record, but it is a reminder that a national headline is not a Queensland outcome — the state figure, the network rules and the feed-in value are all local.

3. What it changes

The "wait for the discount" strategy now has a deadline. Published guides updated in November 2026 note that from 1 January 2027 the solar deeming period falls from five years to four, meaning 20% fewer STCs for new solar systems, and the battery STC factor falls from 6.8 to 5.7 per usable kWh. Those are published guide figures, attributed to the Clean Energy Regulator's published schedule, and the actual discount on any quote depends on the system size, the installation date and the certificate price at the time. The direction is clear, though: the discount for a system installed in 2027 is smaller than for the same system installed in 2026. A buyer who waits for a better price may find the discount has shrunk instead.

Bigger systems need bigger thinking. An average home battery of 26.74 kWh and an average array of about 10 kW is a different purchase from the 6.6 kW solar and 10 kWh battery package that was standard a few years ago. A larger battery charged by a small array will rarely fill; a large array with a small battery exports cheap midday power and buys expensive evening power. The sizing question has moved from "how many panels" to "how much of your evening load can this combination actually cover" — and that question can only be answered from the household's or the business's real load profile, not from a standard package.

The commercial pause is a timing signal, not a verdict. The dip in commercial volumes above 50 kW is buyers waiting for the mid-scale certificate process to open in mid to late November 2026, not a collapse in commercial demand. For a Queensland business, the practical implication is to get the tender, the engineering and the network application ready now, so the project can move when the certificate process opens — rather than starting the process in December and discovering the network approval takes longer than the certificate window.

4. What this means for you

For investors and developers, the record year confirms that the consumer energy market is still growing fast, and that the battery rebate is the engine. But the growth is policy-shaped: it depends on the Cheaper Home Batteries Program, the SRES expansion, and the certificate timetable. An investment case that assumes 2026 discount levels continue into 2027 is assuming something the published schedule contradicts. The mid-scale expansion to 1 MW is the real structural change — it opens the certificate scheme to a class of commercial project that was previously excluded — but its value depends on the application process opening as scheduled in mid to late November 2026 and on the network approvals that govern each project.

For commercial and industrial buyers in Queensland, the October numbers are a prompt to act on the engineering, not a reason to rush a purchase. If your project is between 100 kW and 1 MW, the scheme now covers it, the certificate process opens in mid to late November, and the commercial segment is paused while it waits — which means installers and engineers will be busy when it opens. Get the load analysis, the roof and structural check, the network application and the tender review done now. And remember the Queensland specifics: in South East Queensland (Energex) there is no regulated feed-in tariff and retailers set their own, mostly around 5–10c per kWh; in regional Queensland (Ergon) the regulated rate is 6.006c per kWh from 1 July 2026. Export is not where the value sits — self-consumption is.

For Queensland homeowners, the record year is good news and a deadline in the same package. Good news, because a bigger market means more installer capacity, more product choice and more experience in the industry. A deadline, because the certificate step-down on 1 January 2027 reduces the discount for both solar and batteries, and because a system installed in the rush before a deadline is the system most likely to be installed badly. The right response is not to rush — it is to get an independent review of the quote before signing, so the system is sized for your evening load, your roof and your network approval, and the certificate figure on the quote is the one that applies to your installation date. Our 29 October home battery sizing guide and our 3 November battery retrofit guide both work through that sizing question for Brisbane homes.

For Queensland buyers generally, one month proves nothing about the future — our 4 November News blog made the same point about October's merchant solar revenues, which were the highest since December 2024 but were a single month of spot-market results, not a trend. A record year-to-date tally is stronger evidence than a single month, because it is ten months of data running 41% ahead of 2025. But it is still a record built on discounts and deadlines that are changing. Treat it as evidence that the market is moving, not as a promise about what your system will save.

5. What EServices4U would check independently

The quote's certificate figure against the installation date. Does the STC discount on the quote match the system size, the deeming period and the installation date? A quote that prices a 2026 certificate value against a 2027 installation date is overstating the discount. Ask for the certificate calculation in writing, with the scheme rules and the date it relies on named.

The system size against the load, not the roof. Does the array size match the household's or the business's daytime and evening load? An average battery of 26.74 kWh needs a substantially larger array than the old 6.6 kW standard to charge properly, and a battery that rarely fills is money sitting on a wall. Ask for the sizing calculation and the load data behind it.

The network approval and the export limit. For a Queensland home, confirm the connection approval from Energex or Ergon Energy Network, and the export limit that applies to that specific premises. For a system between 100 kW and 1 MW, confirm the mid-scale connection process and the certificate application timing separately — they are two different approvals, and neither should be assumed.

The installer's accreditation and the warranty chain. With volumes at record levels, the risk is not that installers disappear — it is that rushed installations create defects that only appear in year four, when the workmanship warranty expires. Our 27 October thermal derating guide and our 28 October solar orphans guide both cover what happens when the installer is gone or the warranty is disputed. An independent quote review before signing costs from $149 and checks the engineering, the numbers and the warranty position before the commitment is made.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is 2026 really Australia's biggest rooftop solar year ever?

According to SunWiz data reported by Renew Economy on 6 November 2026, yes on the measure that matters: the January–October tally is the highest on record and is running 41% ahead of the same point in 2025. October alone registered 305 MW of systems up to 100 kW, the strongest October in four years.

How much rooftop solar did Queensland add in October 2026?

75.8 MW, according to SunWiz, down 8% on September. New South Wales added the most at 89.9 MW, and Victoria grew fastest at 11% month on month. Queensland's monthly dip does not change the national record, but it shows the state picture is uneven.

Why are home batteries getting bigger?

The average home battery reached 26.74 kWh in October 2026, its fifth consecutive monthly rise, and systems of 20 kWh and above made up 85% of the month's installed capacity. The federal battery rebate's settings encourage larger systems, and households are sizing batteries to cover evening loads rather than buying the smallest unit. A bigger battery needs a bigger solar array to charge it — size the two together, from your actual load.

Can my business claim STCs for a solar system between 100 kW and 1 MW?

The Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme has covered eligible systems up to 1 MW since 1 October 2026, expanded from 100 kW. But STC applications for mid-scale systems do not open until mid to late November 2026, according to the Clean Energy Regulator. Do not let a quote promise a certificate value until that process is confirmed for your system size and installation date.

Does the discount get smaller in 2027?

Published guides updated in November 2026, citing the Clean Energy Regulator's schedule, note that from 1 January 2027 the solar deeming period falls from five years to four (20% fewer STCs) and the battery STC factor falls from 6.8 to 5.7 per usable kWh. Check the actual discount on your own quote — it depends on system size, installation date and certificate price — but the direction is a smaller discount in 2027 than in 2026.

Should I rush to install before 1 January 2027?

Do not rush a purchase to beat a deadline — a rushed installation is the one most likely to be sized wrong, installed badly or approved late. Get the quote reviewed independently first. A system that is right for your roof, your loads and your network approval is worth more than a discount claimed on a system that does not suit you.

What EServices4U Can Do Before You Sign

• Residential quote review from $149 — an independent check of a home solar or battery quote, including the certificate figure against the installation date, the sizing against your load, and the network approval.

• Solar and battery feasibility assessment from $299 — for a home or business weighing a larger system, a battery, or a mid-scale project under the expanded SRES, sized on actual load data.

• Commercial Infrastructure Assessment / RPEQ & RPEV SLD Sign-Off from $495 — independent technical review of a commercial solar or battery tender, including mid-scale scheme eligibility, network approval and the contract's technical schedules.

• Home Owner's Engineer services from $599 — for homeowners who want an engineer in their corner through a larger installation or a dispute.

• Start with a free 15-minute consultation to talk through your tender, system, building, or project and find out which fixed-fee review fits, if any. Call/WhatsApp 0480 001 498 or email growthpartner@eservices4u.com.au. No obligation, and it does not include a written report.

• See our packages and pricing, our owners engineer services, and our team. Start at EServices4U or request a quote review.