🚨 Investor Warning: Victoria Leaning Too Hard on Offshore Wind, Undersizing REZs

💥 Clean energy investors are raising red flags over Victoria’s energy strategy, warning that its offshore wind targets are overambitious and its onshore Renewable Energy Zones (REZs) are too small to meet long-term demand.

👥 Who’s saying this?

The Clean Energy Investor Group (CEIG) — representing top Australian and global renewable investors.

📉 Key Concerns:

1. Overreliance on Offshore Wind

   🔹 2 GW by 2032, 4 GW by 2035, 9 GW by 2040 = high-risk targets

   🔹 Offshore wind faces global headwinds: ❌ cancellations, ❌ supply chain issues

   🔹 No confirmed auction support from the federal government yet

2. Undersized REZs

   🧩 Victoria’s REZs are too limited, restricting flexibility and investor confidence

   📍 Lessons from NSW: Undersizing REZs led to delays and costly network upgrades

   🛠️ Solution: Plan for scalable REZs with future expansion baked in

3. Unclear Path for Projects Outside REZs

   🌀 Grid impact assessments = complex, slow

   ⚠️ Risk: Current & future renewable projects could get stalled or dropped

📌 CEIG Recommendations:

✅ Expand REZ boundaries — plan for green industrial demand

✅ Create “clear, replicable” grid impact criteria

✅ Provide transitional rules for projects already in development

✅ Define what counts as “excessive curtailment”

✅ Clarify treatment of BESS (Battery Energy Storage Systems)

🗳️ Political Uncertainty Adds Risk

🔴 With Victoria's election set for Nov 2026, CEIG fears a possible policy backflip under a Coalition government — similar to what’s already happening in Queensland:

🚫 RE project cancellations

🚫 CQ-H2 hydrogen project halted

🚫 REZ rules tightened

🚫 Renewables targets under repeal review

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