⚡ The Great Queensland Energy U-Turn: $1.6 Billion for Coal, What Does it Cost YOU?

2 days ago

4 min read

🔥 The Energy Policy Shockwave: Queensland's Bold Reversal

Queensland's new Liberal National Party (LNP) government has made the most controversial energy policy decision in Australia this year, dramatically reversing the state's transition path. This move has major implications for energy consumers, investors, and the future of the National Electricity Market (NEM).

The core of the new policy, cemented by the Energy Roadmap Amendment Act 2025, involves three key shifts:

Renewable Targets Smashed: Scrapping the ambitious targets of 50% renewables by 2030 and 80% by 2035.
Coal's New Lease on Life: Committing a massive $1.6 billion in taxpayer funds to extend the operational life of state-owned coal generators, pushing retirement dates in some cases as far out as 2049.
Renewable Funding Slashed: Allocating just $400 million to be shared across the entire future energy system—including large-scale renewables, battery storage, and new gas projects.

While Treasurer and Energy Minister David Janetzki claims this reversal will save taxpayers an estimated $26 billion by avoiding early coal retirement, the detailed analysis supporting this figure has not been made public, sparking widespread debate.

⚡ The Great Queensland Energy U-Turn: $1.6 Billion for Coal, What Does it Cost YOU?

⚠️ The 'Reliability' Myth: Why Coal is Failing the NEM

The LNP's central justification is that coal offers "reliable baseload power." However, official data from the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) and independent analysts tells a starkly different story.

Chronic Unavailability: During the six-month period of April to September 2025—which includes the peak winter months when coal should be most critical—an average of 26% of Queensland's coal capacity was offline. That's a staggering 2 GW of power unavailable.
Breakdown Epidemic: The state recorded 61 unplanned outages in just six months. The worst offenders included Gladstone Power Station (with 33 breakdowns) and multiple units like Tarong North with availability dipping as low as 33%.
Costly & Volatile: Across 2025, coal generated nearly two-thirds of Queensland’s electricity at a high cost, often over $100/MWh in the wholesale market.

The reality is that ageing coal plants are not reliable; they are a major source of price volatility and supply risk in the NEM.

💃 The ‘Coal Dance’: Operational Challenges in a Solar Grid

The unstoppable growth of rooftop solar—with Queensland having the highest penetration in Australia at nearly 7 GW—has fundamentally changed the economics of the grid. This forces coal to adopt an entirely new, difficult mode of operation known as Two-Shifting:

Daytime Shutdown: Coal plants must switch off or significantly ramp down during the middle of the day to avoid generating power when abundant, low-cost solar pushes wholesale prices to zero or even into negative pricing.
Evening Restart: They must then quickly ramp back up to meet the evening peak demand after the sun sets.

This stop-start operation causes extreme stress on old equipment, drastically increasing the risk of mechanical breakdowns and unplanned outages. AEMO has cautioned that under these conditions, there will be "many periods in which all coal is offline," challenging the government's premise of long-term reliability.

💰 Consumers Are Leading the Charge: Voting With Their Wallets

Despite the LNP's plan assuming almost no new renewable energy will be built beyond committed projects, Queenslanders are already building the future grid themselves.

Solar Dominance: Rooftop solar alone provided a massive 25% of the state's total electricity generation in 2025—at a fraction of the cost of coal.
Battery Boom: Since July 2025, over 20,000 home batteries have been installed in Queensland, a clear consumer vote for energy independence and bill stress reduction.
Cost Comparison: Rooftop solar delivers power at ultra-low cost, while coal power is priced at over $100/MWh. As one analyst put it, "Queenslanders are voting with their wallets for an affordable, electric future."

This consumer-led electrification is the real energy transition that no government policy can stop.

🧭 Queensland’s Isolation: Out of Step with Australia

The LNP’s decision places Queensland in stark contrast with every other major Australian state, making it the only one actively reversing its clean energy commitment.

State	Renewable Target	Coal Exit / Transition Plan
Victoria	95% by 2035	Coal gone by 2035
South Australia	100% net renewables by 2027	Already no coal
New South Wales	Accelerating REZ rollout	All coal retiring by 2035
Western Australia	Last coal closer by 2030	Gas + Renewables focus
Queensland (LNP)	❌ NO TARGETS	Coal to 2049

This policy shift risks making Queensland an outlier for global green investment and jeopardises its ability to capitalise on the rapidly growing clean energy economy.

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