
Export Crisis Looms: Australia Must Embrace Green Iron or Face Massive Economic Decline
Jul 5
2 min read
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Australia is staring down a steep decline in its resource and energy export earnings, with the Office of the Chief Economist (OCE) forecasting a $33 billion drop by 2026–27 compared to 2024–25. If the country fails to evolve quickly, it risks not only economic downturn but also falling behind in the global race toward decarbonisation.

📉 Iron Ore, LNG, and Coal Revenues Plunge
The forecast highlights a widespread downturn:
Iron ore revenues to drop 17%, from $116B to $97B
LNG exports down 20%, from $67B to $53B
Thermal coal collapsing over 60%, from $66B to $26B
Metallurgical coal falling 34%, from $64B to $42B
This comes in the wake of record-high earnings in 2022–23, triggered by global market instability following sanctions on Russia.
🌍 The Global Pivot: Decarbonisation and Economic Resilience
As major trading partners accelerate their shift toward net-zero economies, Australia must diversify away from fossil fuels and increase value-added exports. The solution? Green iron.
Currently, Australia ships low-grade iron ore offshore, missing out on value-add opportunities. Yet technologies to process lower-purity iron into green steel onshore are still commercially unviable at scale. Without innovation, Australia’s dominance in global steel supply chains could erode rapidly.
💡 Green Iron: Australia’s $250 Billion Opportunity
A recent report, Green Metal Statecraft, emphasizes that green iron production could more than double Australia’s iron export value to $250B annually — replacing the economic loss from declining coal and LNG.
Steelmaking is responsible for 6.7% of global emissions. A robust Australian green iron industry could cut up to 1 billion tonnes of CO₂ annually, double the country’s domestic emissions.
🔧 What's Needed: Innovation, Investment, and Alliances
Key recommendations from the report include:
$500 million to CSIRO for R&D in green iron tech
Deploying $750 million from the Future Made in Australia Innovation Fund to semi-commercial projects
A $20 billion Future Fund mandate for renewables-powered metal refining
An Australasian Green Iron Corporation JV with Japan and South Korea
A national green iron and steel strategy with public procurement and contract-for-difference mechanisms
Faster project approvals, industrial demand response systems, and Renewable Energy Industrial Precincts
The ultimate goal: create a globally competitive green metal ecosystem and future-proof Australia’s economic foundation.
⚙️ EServices4U: Your Partner in Renewable Energy Transition
As Australia faces an urgent need to modernize and decarbonize its heavy industries, EServices4U is here to help bridge the gap.
We specialize in:
✅ Green technology consultation for iron, steel, and energy sectors
✅ Solar and wind project planning
✅ Energy audits and renewable integration
✅ Battery storage and demand-response planning
✅ Onshore value-add strategies for industries looking to decarbonize
Let’s work together to unlock Australia’s green industrial future.
🔗 Learn more: www.eservices4u.com.au