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Export Crisis Looms: Australia Must Embrace Green Iron or Face Massive Economic Decline

Jul 5

2 min read

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Australia is staring down a steep decline in its resource and energy export earnings, with the Office of the Chief Economist (OCE) forecasting a $33 billion drop by 2026–27 compared to 2024–25. If the country fails to evolve quickly, it risks not only economic downturn but also falling behind in the global race toward decarbonisation.

Export Crisis Looms: Australia Must Embrace Green Iron or Face Massive Economic Decline

📉 Iron Ore, LNG, and Coal Revenues Plunge

The forecast highlights a widespread downturn:

  • Iron ore revenues to drop 17%, from $116B to $97B

  • LNG exports down 20%, from $67B to $53B

  • Thermal coal collapsing over 60%, from $66B to $26B

  • Metallurgical coal falling 34%, from $64B to $42B

This comes in the wake of record-high earnings in 2022–23, triggered by global market instability following sanctions on Russia.


🌍 The Global Pivot: Decarbonisation and Economic Resilience

As major trading partners accelerate their shift toward net-zero economies, Australia must diversify away from fossil fuels and increase value-added exports. The solution? Green iron.

Currently, Australia ships low-grade iron ore offshore, missing out on value-add opportunities. Yet technologies to process lower-purity iron into green steel onshore are still commercially unviable at scale. Without innovation, Australia’s dominance in global steel supply chains could erode rapidly.


💡 Green Iron: Australia’s $250 Billion Opportunity

A recent report, Green Metal Statecraft, emphasizes that green iron production could more than double Australia’s iron export value to $250B annually — replacing the economic loss from declining coal and LNG.

Steelmaking is responsible for 6.7% of global emissions. A robust Australian green iron industry could cut up to 1 billion tonnes of CO₂ annually, double the country’s domestic emissions.


🔧 What's Needed: Innovation, Investment, and Alliances

Key recommendations from the report include:

  • $500 million to CSIRO for R&D in green iron tech

  • Deploying $750 million from the Future Made in Australia Innovation Fund to semi-commercial projects

  • A $20 billion Future Fund mandate for renewables-powered metal refining

  • An Australasian Green Iron Corporation JV with Japan and South Korea

  • A national green iron and steel strategy with public procurement and contract-for-difference mechanisms

  • Faster project approvals, industrial demand response systems, and Renewable Energy Industrial Precincts


The ultimate goal: create a globally competitive green metal ecosystem and future-proof Australia’s economic foundation.


⚙️ EServices4U: Your Partner in Renewable Energy Transition

As Australia faces an urgent need to modernize and decarbonize its heavy industries, EServices4U is here to help bridge the gap.

We specialize in:

  • Green technology consultation for iron, steel, and energy sectors

  • Solar and wind project planning

  • Energy audits and renewable integration

  • Battery storage and demand-response planning

  • Onshore value-add strategies for industries looking to decarbonize

Let’s work together to unlock Australia’s green industrial future.

🔗 Learn more: www.eservices4u.com.au

Jul 5

2 min read

0

1

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