Forecasting the Future: South Australia's Energy Grid Faces a Turning Point

South Australia is entering a new era in its energy journey, and electricity demand forecasting is becoming more crucial than ever. According to ElectraNet’s 2025 Transmission Annual Planning Report (TAPR), the clean energy transition is reshaping the state's economy at a speed that was unimaginable just a few years ago.

The report highlights that South Australia's electricity grid must evolve rapidly. Planning frameworks, assumptions, and regulations must not just catch up, but stay ahead of the fast-changing demand driven by large-scale renewable projects and industrial expansion.

ElectraNet CEO, Simon Emms, stressed the need for a robust transmission network to match the surge in energy-driven investment. “Industries are investing in South Australia for its renewables. Our grid must be ready to deliver,” he said.

One of the biggest risks identified in the TAPR is that AEMO’s current demand forecasting might be underplaying South Australia's future electricity needs. If these projections are too conservative, essential transmission projects may not be approved or built in time.

The report reveals massive interest in connecting new projects to the grid — over 2500MW of load projects are already seeking connection, with the potential to exceed 15,000MW in the future. For context, South Australia's current grid demand averages 1300MW.

ElectraNet warned that current planning only includes “committed” projects, ignoring many large-scale industrial proposals that are still in discussion. Including these non-committed loads in medium- to long-term forecasting is essential to ensure a secure and future-ready grid.

To support this demand, ElectraNet is exploring the Northern Transmission Project (NTx), aimed at improving reliability and expanding grid capacity. But without accurate forecasts, such projects may not proceed fast enough to support South Australia’s energy needs.

Mr Emms concluded, “We can’t afford to plan based on outdated models. Our energy future is unfolding now, and the infrastructure must follow. We’re committed to working with AEMO and partners to ensure South Australia is ready for what’s next.”

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