Victoria’s Gas-Free Future by 2032: A Win for Households, Not Oil Execs

While Peter Dutton’s failed gas reservation plan fades into political history, the threat of gas shortages still looms over Victoria, New South Wales, and South Australia, expected as early as 2028–29. Oil and gas executives blame the Victorian government’s “anti-gas” stance, but evidence points to a different reality—years of gas being siphoned out of Victoria and funneled north for export. This isn’t just policy; it’s profit strategy.

CEOs argue that without new gas fields, we face inevitable shortages. Yet, even conventional gas in Victoria is becoming unviable due to high extraction costs. Ironically, those same execs complained that capping prices would make new gas projects uneconomical—proving their dependence on keeping prices (and demand) high. Residential consumers, who make up a third of Victoria’s gas demand, are the cash cow.

It's not just gas producers who benefit. Gas distribution pipeline owners rely on households for 93% of their revenue. That’s why any effort to move away from gas heating is met with fierce resistance—it threatens the entire value chain, from extraction to infrastructure profits.

The Victorian government understands that while certain manufacturing sectors need gas, most households don’t. Electric alternatives—like heat-pump air and water heaters—are not only viable but also more efficient and cost-effective. Encouragingly, momentum is building to switch homes away from gas.

Thanks to the Victorian Energy Upgrades (VEU) program, thousands of households are already ditching gas heaters. In March 2025 alone, nearly 7,000 systems were replaced. At the current pace, full replacement could take 15 years. But if the rate of growth continues, all 1.27 million gas heaters in Victoria could be gone by mid-2032—without needing major technological breakthroughs.

This transition isn’t just a government play. The electrical and appliance industry has proven it can scale quickly—just look at the solar boom. Replacing gas heaters with electric systems is achievable and could be just as transformative.

Yet, policy backsliding threatens progress. The VEU scheme’s target is being lowered next year, which could slow momentum. Additionally, rental properties remain a sticking point—landlords rarely invest in upgrades that don’t directly benefit them. That’s why a legislative push requiring replacement of gas systems at end-of-life is crucial.

Critics will frame this as anti-gas ideology. But really, it’s about protecting consumers from being trapped in a high-cost energy system controlled by profit-driven executives. The real solution lies in smart policies, upgraded programs like VEU, and government support for efficient, electrified homes.

As homes across Victoria transition away from gas, EServices4U is here to support that change. From energy-saving consultancy and electric appliance solutions to solar panel and windmill installation advice, we help households future-proof their energy use. We also provide expert audits to ensure your bills are fair and your energy use is efficient. Visit www.eservices4u.com.au to power your switch to a cleaner, smarter home.